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One would obviously surmise that a trader with a % of winning trades nearing the 100% mark would be a very good bet. Side B then would tell us that a trader with a win % closer to 0% would be a very bad bet. Obviously, winning a great many trades is a good thing, but that would be to oversimplify the matter. The hope of this article is to explain to you why a 95% win rate is way more of a loser than a 65% win rate.

Our first look will be at those traders with a low win rate, say those with a classification within the 0% to 40% range. If the trader falls closer to the 0% rate one would think him to be a genuine loser. In truth, most in this category are losing traders. But you will sometimes see a trader trying to snag really large moves with really tight stops. This guy may show an extremely low win percentage but could still be a very successful player.

The next range is from ~40% to ~70%. This is the range most winning traders will be in. The reason these traders win is not because they pick a ton of winning trades and rarely have a loser. They may in fact have more losing trades than winning trades. The reason they are able to win is that they properly manage their trades once they are open. They use reasonable stops that will often be executed. This obviously results in a losing trade, but a small loser. These small losers are only a fraction of the size of their winning trades. These are most often the traders that have the ability to cut their losses but let their winners run. This seems like a simple concept, but very few traders have the discipline to actually do it.

The final group we are going to be concerned with is the one with very high wins of greater than 70%. More people gravitate to them the closer they get to the 100% mark. These people should do the opposite and leave such traders alone. Unfortunately, few of them do. By taking profit off of the table immediately on appearance, these traders seem to have an extremely high win record. This strategy would work if these same traders also cut losses in the same manner. Traders who have a 95% plus win rate will not be looking at this strategy. They will normally let a loser run ad infinitum and even add to that position much of the time rather than accepting the small loss and moving on with their trading day. Allowing a loser to run like this will in the course of time wipe out months or more of winning trades in one fell swoop and is definitely not the road to success. Keep in mind that one 500 pip loser wipes out all the gains of 500 one pip winners. On the surface, this type of trader has over 99% winning trades. In fact, he could easily have an overall losing record.

The point of this article is not to say that no one outside of the predetermined range can possibly be a winning trader. Surely many people can and do win with a win % outside of my range. I just want to warn you that if someone has a 95% win rate you should stand aside and hope not to get hit by any debris when they eventually implode.

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