Volatility the Carry Trade and The Macro Trader

by Peter Kovner

If you are a global macro trader you trade anything and everything as long as you can find an exploitable edge. The majority of your trades are across asset classes trading stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies. You are looking for uncorrelated returns from multiple asset classes.

They trade not only different asset classes but multiple strategies within each asset class. For instance in stocks they will trade outright long and short positions, merger arbitrage deals, asset class arbitrage where you trade the equity against debt, and even pairs trading. They do much of the same in commodities and currencies as well. Essentially they are looking for sources of return wherever they can find it.

Macro traders have one strategy that most traders never use and that is the currency markets. Long the playground of only banks, currency trading is now available to the masses and is getting better and better. One of the best strategies in currency trading is that of the carry trade.

To utilize the carry trade you go long a high yielding currency and go short the lower yielding currency. You can make money in one or two of two different ways. If the currencies remain flat you will earn the interest rate differential. You can also make money by being right on the directional part of the trade, that being if they move in your direction.

To really juice the returns available from the carry trade you can and probably should use some degree of leverage. Some traders are modest and only use two to four times leverage while others are aggressive and use up to fifty times leverage. While high leverage is great when you are right they can be disaster when you are wrong as the losses are magnified on the way down just like they are on the way up. Of course is it that easy?

No, it is not that easy. If volatility picks up and the carry trade loses favor then the carry will not be enough to make up for the huge loss in capital on the directional side of the trade. If you use too much leverage you will go kaboom and lose all your money.

You can use several different methods to estimate volatility. You can use the standard volatility index for the SP500. While it is designed and used primarily for equities it is a good estimate of volatility for most asset classes. Now days you can just use a currency volatility index like those from JP Morgan or many of the other investment banks.

If you are global macro trader trading the currency carry trade then you need to be paying attention to volatility or eventually you will lose a lot of money. By focusing on the risk you will be in a far better position for the rewards.

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