Getting to Know Momentum

by Chris Blanchet

Many investors will confuse a trendline with momentum. However, as an event derived from astute technical analysis, Momentum tells investors a lot more than a cursory glance at a security price’s trend line. Using technical analysis and technical events like Momentum, investors are able to determine whether a price is likely to continue its trend or reverse and head the other way.

Defining Momentum Sharing similarities with the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD), Momentum tells investors how much a security’s price has changed over a certain time period. Investors with a general understanding of technical analysis methods, and this method in particular, will be able to more accurately determine whether day-to-day changes in price are merely a reflection of a market’s systemic behavior or if it is signaling a more permanent trend.

In other words, Momentum allows investors to see the true strength of particular price trend. When relying on multiple technical analysis tools in conjunction with Momentum, investors are better able to understand the true, underlying price trend. Armed with this information, investors can make appropriate changes to their security holdings. Making such important decisions can become difficult at best without the assistance of technical analysis tools.

Calculating Momentum One of the downfalls with technical analysis is that there is a heavy mathematical component to many of the events. While this not entirely true for Momentum, investors will need to understand the basic formula required to obtain a Momentum reading. Simply, Momentum is calculated by dividing the Closing Price by the Closing price ten periods ago, and multiplying it by 100. [Close/(Close 10 time-periods ago) * 100].

Trading on Momentum Basing trade decisions on Momentum is quite simple. If the Momentum value is greater than zero, then a bullish signal is trigger; less than zero, a bearish signal is triggered. Investors should, however, be cautious in that extremely higher low values might not suggest a reversal but instead a continuation of the existing trend. For example, where investors are looking to sell, instead of trading on Momentum, investors should wait for the actual security price to begin its fall before committing to selling.

In fact, with most signals derived through technical analysis, investors are advised to use other signals or patterns to confirm or refute a trade opportunity. Momentum is often used to confirm other events or price trends.

As mentioned previously, many events triggered through technical analysis involve heavy mathematical calculations. For most investors who do not have the time or ability to complete their own mathematical work, trading software has evolved to the point where your computer will go so far as making simple buy and sell recommendations. Understanding technical analysis is one thing; completing the work is another. For most serious investors, trading software not only makes sense, but it improves profit.

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